Last Chance for "Fire in the Sky"?

Leonids Press Release 2002

If clear, the late evening and early morning hours of 18-19 November may hold a once-in-a-lifetime celestial event for the people of Sweden, the rest of Western Europe and North and West Africa. This is the night of the last predicted return of the Leonid meteor storm for a century. "While the Leonids are seen at this time every year," says Tom Callen, Cosmonova's astronomer/program producer, " 2002 may be special in that we could see 1,000, or more, meteors per hour. This translates to about 16 meteors per second, or greater. And it could very well be our last chance to see such a spectacle until at least 2098!"

Meteor showers are produced by comets, balls of ice and dust left over from the formation of the solar system. As a comet orbits our sun it leaves behind a trail of sandgrain-sized dust and small stones. When the earth crosses this trail of particles, we see the spectacle of a meteor shower -- weather permitting.

"Comet Tempel-Tuttle is the source of the Leonid meteor shower," says Callen. "This comet takes 33 years to go around the sun once. It last passed by the earth's orbit on 28 February 1998. So, every 33 years, plus the next few, there is a chance for a really spectacular meteor shower. It takes a little time for the freshly deposited material to spread out a little bit." Up to 1,000 meteors per hour were seen by observers in North America last year. In 1999 skywatchers in Europe and the Middle East counted up to 3,000, almost one per second. In November 1966 observers in the United States saw an incredible display while 40 meteors were seen every second for 20 minutes. "And you never know what to expect," says Callen, "since meteor predicting cannot be 100% exact. The best thing you can do is go out and see for yourself on the morning of November 19th."

Comets and meteor showers have both long fascinated observers here on Earth, and this one is no exception. "The Leonids of 1833 were so intense," informs Callen, "that many people in North America thought that it was the end of the world. There are many illustrations from that year showing the November night sky covered with streaks of light."

How should one observe a meteor shower? "The best thing to do," suggests Callen, "is to find a dark location away from city lights. Look after midnight as that's when meteors are the brightest. They will be increasing in number with the maximum beginning at 05.00 local time here in Stockholm. Bring along a lawn chair, or a blanket, so that you can lay down and be comfortable. While you should be able to see meteors over the entire sky, begin by looking low in the east at midnight. By 03.00 Leo, the Lion, the constellation where the meteors appear to come from, will be east-southeast. At 05.00, the start of the storm's maximum, face south-southeast. The cross on the provided star maps (see below) mark the point where the meteors appear to come from in Leo."

The bright object just to the right of Leo's question mark-shaped head is the planet Jupiter. While the almost Full Moon will be high in the sky and due south at midnight, by 05.00 and the time of the most meteors it will be low in the west. "Fortunately," observes Callen, "the bright moon and the radiant point in Leo will be about 100 degrees apart, which is better than if they were in the same part of the sky."

And if this year turns out to be cloudy and we don't get to see the final major Leonid shower? "Unfortunately, there's not much we can do about it," says Callen. "Several astronomers have looked ahead at the future passages of Comet Tempel-Tuttle in 2031, 2065, 2098 and 2131. They have found that, due to changes in the comet's orbit relative to that of the Earth's, the next chance to see such a meteor storm won't be until the last two; at least a century away. There probably will not be another great Leonids meteor storm until our great grandchildren's time. So, now is the time to take the opportunity and look for yourself, unless, of course, you want to wait a century!"

For more information, contact:
Tom Callen, Astronomer/Program Producer, tel. +46 8 519 551 04, e-mail: tom.callen@nrm.se